From VUCA to BANI: Preparing Schools for an Unpredictable Future

After 35 years as a school leader, I’ve seen firsthand how quickly the world can shift. When I started, many of us were focused on what we now call VUCA—Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous. That was challenging enough. But today, the world we lead in has changed. The evidence is all around us: school communities are experiencing BANI—Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear, and Incomprehensible dilemmas—and the pressures are growing. Recognizing this shift isn’t optional; it’s essential for schools that want to thrive and be future ready.

Let's dive into the BANI landscape and see if this resonates.

Brittle: Structures that once felt solid—curricula, technology, even school culture—are now breaking under unexpected stress. We see it in sudden faculty and staff retention/hiring, technology trends, or social tensions that escalate quickly. Leaders must anticipate fragility, build redundancy, and cultivate flexibility before crises emerge and reveal or create the cracks in our systems.

Anxious: Anxiety is no longer occasional; it’s pervasive. Students feel pressure from so many sources: social media, academics, and a world that seems increasingly unpredictable. Staff worry about job security, safety, and societal change. Families face new stresses and they reach into the classroom. Our Boards are facing new risks and challenges that are not always solvable. As leaders, recognizing and addressing anxiety proactively is crucial—not just with programs, but through empathy, clear communication, and a culture of support.

Nonlinear: Cause and effect no longer follow predictable paths. A small policy change or isolated event can have ripple effects we never imagined. Traditional planning models fall short. Schools need adaptive thinking, scenario planning, and agile responses to navigate an environment where the unexpected is the only constant.

Incomprehensible: If the past five years have taught us anything it is that sometimes we simply cannot make sense of what is happening. Complex social, technological, and cultural shifts can leave even the most experienced leaders and teams scrambling. In these moments, curiosity, humility, and rapid learning become the most valuable leadership tools.

The difference between VUCA and BANI may seem subtle at first, but it is profound—and it matters deeply for schools. VUCA alerts us to uncertainty and complexity, encouraging preparation and adaptive thinking. BANI, by contrast, exposes the structural and systemic vulnerabilities of our world. It demands that we face fragility in our systems, widespread anxiety in our communities, nonlinear outcomes in our decisions, and situations that often feel incomprehensible. Unlike VUCA, which can feel manageable with careful planning, BANI reveals that even well-laid plans can fail, and small shocks can cascade into major disruptions. The world is no longer merely volatile or complex—it is increasingly brittle, anxious, unpredictable, and beyond straightforward understanding.

For school leaders, this means that yesterday’s strategies are no longer enough; we must build resilient, empathetic, and adaptive schools capable of navigating a landscape that grows more fragile and incomprehensible with each passing year. After 35 years in school leadership, I’ve learned that our guiding vision, mission and values—clarity of purpose, empathy, trust—remain vital. But applying them in a BANI world requires greater intentionality, foresight, and resilience. Schools that understand this shift can transform uncertainty into innovation and anxiety into opportunity.

The question for educational leaders isn’t whether BANI exists—it’s how we respond, today, to ensure our schools are strong, supportive, and future-ready.

After decades in school leadership and working with hundreds of schools across the world, I can say this with confidence: preparing students for the future isn’t just about what they learn; it’s about how they learn to respond, adapt, and thrive.

In a BANI world, having a futurist mindset isn’t a luxury—it’s essential. This helps guide vision, cultivate resilience, and create a culture where curiosity, adaptability, and shared sense-making are embedded in everything we do. But it’s not just for those of us with a futurist title. Everyone in the community—students, teachers, staff, and leaders—needs to adopt a future-minded perspective. That’s how we ensure our schools don’t just survive in a world that feels brittle, anxious, nonlinear, and incomprehensible—we thrive.